Iran Hopes

A Weblog on Iranian Affairs (Formerly Iran Votes 2005)

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Moeen's dilemma

The GC has finally approved Moeen. In its statement, the GC points out that it has done so, only "in obeying the Leader's administrative order (Hokm Hokumati, this is a technical term drawn from Islamic jurisprudence). Administrative orders issued by the Leader as a form of intervention outside the legal process have frequently been opposed by the 'reformists'. For instance, in 1999, when the Leader issued such an order demanding the sixth Majlis (dominated by the reformists) to withdraw a draft amendment to the laws on freedom of newspapers, the reformists MPs objected to the order as being 'illegal', on the grounds that there was no legal provision that could serve as a basis for legitimacy of such orders.
This time, however, the Leader has issued an adminstrative order beneficial to the only reformist candidate in the upcoming election. So now the question is whether Moeen will act on this order or will he dismiss it as illegal and withdraw from running for election. Some argue that if Moeen makes the decision to act on the Leader's order and run for the election, he will lose public confidence, as he and the party he represents will be regarded as hypocrtics. Others say that he should hold on to this opportunity at any cost. He must not pay any attention to the 'games' surrounding this process, but only focus on winning the election and in this way keep hardliners away from becoming the all powerful in the country. But what would happen if Moeen does so but eventually loses in the election? In fact, this is very likely. The disqualification incident must have at least helped Moeen to realize that he does not have a wide enough base among the public. The very limited reaction to his disqualification easily proves this point. This does not, however, mean that the public have less confidence in Moeen compared to other candidates. Rather, as I have said before, the issue is that Iranians, or at least the majority, are very confident that they have no confidence in NONE of these candidates. So, what will the best option be for Moeen in this situation? This is a dilimma that may not be solved easily.


Blogger Majed said...

thanks for a great blogg...

5:32 PM  
Blogger JBOC said...

Dr. Moin Was Never A Serious Candidfate

In a masterful move the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei headed off a diabolical plot to destroy the Presidential elections. Mostafa Moin was not a serious candidate for the Presidency. The plan was to say anything necessary to build a following but also to say things to guarantee that he could never get past the Guardian Council. Dr. Moin toured the country saying things guaranteed to incite the Ayatollah Janati head of the Guardian Council. Once thrown off the ballot Moin and his allies, a coalition of former Communists and anti-IRI agitators, would then challenge the standing of the election and call for a Reformist boycott.

Why would Moin and factions of MIRO and the IIPF want to destroy the elections. First of all they cannot win. If they could win Dr. Moin would not have been saying the provocative comments. Secondly since they could not win they desired to hurt the Islamic Republic of Iran. Moin and his allies do not support the theocracy and wish to see it end so that they can go on to a new system.

By adding Dr. Moin to the Ballot Ayatollah Ali Khamenei headed off the plot to destroy the elections and he put Dr. Moin in a very awkward position. With Moin on the Ballot it draws votes from Mehdie Karrubi the leading Reformist candidate. It is a fair bet that Rafsanjani will be the leading vote getter but he may not draw 50 % which means no win and the top two vote getters go on to a runoff election. With the Reformists divided it will be Rafsanjani #1 and Qalibaf #2. I do not think Karrubi can out poll Qalibaf even if the other two Reformists drop out but if Qalibaf makes a mistake Karrubi might have a chance. But he is boxed in. Moin will not admit that his candidacy was a farce although he would love to get off the ballot right now. The end result will be that Moin is shown to be a "paper tiger" and the Reformist movement is shown to be a powerless and irrelevant part of Iranian politics.

8:53 AM  

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