Iran Hopes

A Weblog on Iranian Affairs (Formerly Iran Votes 2005)

Sunday, June 12, 2005

Who is behind yesterday blasts?

I posted the following yesterday morning (before the explosions) but then removed in order to make further verifications. However, in the light of yesterday's blasts in Tehran and Ahwas, I think it is worth re-publishing it.

The hardliners (Ossulgarayan) are deliberating on how to reach on an agreement on a single, or ultimately two candidates. It is very much likely that Ahmadi Nejad and Rezai pull out of the competition by Tuesday this week. In the meanwhile, exterimist factions in the camp of Ossulgarayan have already started contemplating on possible post-election strategies. Almost certain that Moeen has little chance to attract a high number of votes, now their main concern is how to deal with Rafsanjani. There have been propositions that, should Rafsanjani win sufficinet votes in the first round to become president, attempt should be made to cause instability and unrest. The proponents of this strategy argue such a rioting shall be provoked in the first place by using Hezbollahi militias and Ansar. They anticipate that the rioting will soon spread as a large number of the public, who are generally unhappy with the regime will also join in. Here, the plan goes, the hardliners should take utmost advantage of their control over Sepah, the Police, as well as the militia. These forces shall not make any attempt to control to stop (perhaps only contain) the riots so that the country will end up in a chaos. Under such circumstances, it is hoped, Rafsanjani would step down, which would then enable Khamenei to invoke Artilce 131 of the Constitution to order a new election - of course without Rafsanjani. But some argue that this plan can better work whenRafsanjani has officially taken office. Their argument is based on the presumption that, should Rafsanjani seem to be unable to control the unrest- which in their opinion will be the case - then the Majlis, controlled by a hardliner majority, can easily ask the Leader to exercise his power under Articles 89 and 110 of the Constitution and remove him from the office . Neither of the propositions has yet gained a wide acceptance among Ossulgaras, due to the fear that an unrest may lead to mass uprising which may get out of control and ultimately lead to regime change. In any event, they show how desparate the hardliners are getting to get their hand on to the post they have been deprived of for the past sixteen years.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I tell you who is responsible for those blasts. It is the work of american and zionist terrorists. They want to raise ethnic tensions and undermine the elections. People of Iran, do not ever trust the americans, they only care for their own interests. They are only there for you oil. It is in the american agenda to keep Iran a weak and backward country as long as possible. Since america cant invade a much powerful Iran, they are using ethnic violence by incitin arabs, kurds, and baloochis against persians. Iranian people should brace national unity so to defeat these efforts by evil Bush regime. I understand that the Mullahs are not good, but believe me when I say america is laughing on how they are playing you against each other. Freedom in iran should be won by Iranian people alone without outside interference, but america will do anything to distrupt the democracy movements in Iran, because america know democracy in middle east means poison for it imperialists ambitions. The best way for change is peaceful change, violence only invites more foreign interference. Good luck IRAN, you are the only people that can bring democracy in middle east, thus ending american and zionist imperialist dreams.

9:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i agree with the anonymous post before me here that americans do not like stability in iran but i don't think we should see their hands in every nasty thing that happens in our country. on this point, i agree with windsteed that there might be people from within the regime who might have interest in causing instability.

9:50 PM  

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